[A8C] - ESSAY: Prepared Minds for Techno-Disruption
Writings on frameworks, tools, and systems for accelerated learning in tech. Identifying asymmetric opportunities, finding leverage, and tracking technologies that will shape the world of tomorrow
Short Question About the Future
What are the biggest challenges in your life that you think technology will be able to solve five years from now? How are you preparing to take advantage of that technology early?
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Short Essay: Prepared Mind Exercises
"Chance favors the prepared mind," said French scientist Louis Pasteur
He was reflecting on discoveries in electromagnetism and microbiology, but the concept of systematically training a “prepared mind” is an exercise long since adopted across multiple sectors - from Science, to Engineering, to Investing, to Defense
Accel, the top tier venture capital firm in Silicon Valley are often credited with the term “prepared mind” when it comes to the world of technology and innovation. The Accel team have institutionalized in their organization that they should always be thinking ahead and beyond what is possible today - in order to invest in the opportunities of tomorrow
“Wax On, Wax Off” in the Karate Kid was all about building a “prepared mind” by continuously simulating future challenges (fights) & opportunities
The Power of a Prepared Mind in Early-Stage Investing
In frontier markets, a 'prepared mind' means thoroughly researching markets, topics, or technologies, in order to understand not what is currently out there - but what probably should be out there soon.
Put another way, you would research a market not to understand which companies operate there today, but to understand where there are no companies serving an emerging need - and you therefore want to be prepared for when a new idea comes along
So if you had a “prepared mind” after during the Internet boom, you might be able to understand that the Internet would be used offer search for free (well, with ads), to compete with retail, or be used to connect billions of people in social networks
I’m alluding of course to both Jeff Bezos’ founding of Amazon, his angel investing in Google, and Peter Thiel’s first check into “TheFacebook.com”
Both Bezos and Thiel had spent years thinking about what the Internet could become, and how they would position themselves to be a part of it
Developing a Prepared Mind
While not everyone can be a full-time technology investor, everyone should I my opinion be cultivating a prepared mind. This involves:
Understanding current technologies and their potential/future market impact
Identifying opportunities where technology is either failing or actually creating new challenges
Searching and reflecting on what problems either existing or new technologies might help solve
I try to do this in a structured way, where I have a notebook where I regularly write short “what if”-scenarios after I’ve read a cool paper, an interesting book, watched a good YouTube-video, etc.
I’ll share more about that notebook in a later essay, but scheduling time to either stare at a page in that book or write out a “what if X happens” is a major part of how I work
Disruptive Questions to Play Around With
I try to keep my calendar populated with “exploration calls” every week. These are calls either with founders, tech investors, or other technologists/hackers” that I enjoy spit balling about the future with
A few questions that I often enjoy discussing are:
What could we achieve with 10X more resources or information?
How might a certain technology be built different if we started from scratch, with a $10bn budget?
What opportunities would arise if certain resources became 10X cheaper?
How could 10x more of a specific resource or technology improve current operations or ways of working?
There are many more - but would be awesome to hear yours in the comments / DMs!
Prepared Mind Questions for Large Corporations
For large corporate environments, I’ve also spent a lot of time recently thinking about the applications and development of new AI solutions. A few questions I’ve been playing with are:
How could AI agents improve or automate different workflows?
What insights could we gain from a complete understanding of our organization's collective experience?
How would instant customer insights change our strategies?
What innovations are possible with dramatically reduced energy costs?
How could accurate performance predictions transform our operations?
Conclusion
Conclusion: Developing a prepared mind through thoughtful questioning can lead to asymmetric opportunities. Doing this in a structured way has been the best way for me, although others might prefer to just “wing it”
My key tip in any case would be to document the process and your thinking - always
Leveraging other tools, like “A network of tech founders”, “Scouting communities” or “Concept libraries” are ways that I try to capture different future scenarios, and also how I sanity check them with the outside world
Your mind can never be fully “prepared” in the world of tech and disruption, but just being reading to be proven wrong - and then pivot quickly - is a key survival skill
How do you run similar “prepared mind” exercises yourself? What do you focus on, and how do you do it?
Please leave a comment on DM if you’re doing something cool
A Recommendation
"The Power Law" is a great deep dive into how many venture capitalists (although definitely not all) work on developing a mindset primed for technological disruption. Knowing that you won’t be right, but still being reading for the big “what ifs”
For other recommendations (mainly books & articles), there is more content on my website
About the Author: Working at the interface between frontier technology and rapidly evolving business models, I work to develop the frameworks, tools, and mental models to keep up and get ahead in our Technological World.
Having trained as a robotics engineer but also worked on the business / finance side for over a decade, I seek to understand those few asymmetric developments that truly shape our world
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